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EIA: uncertainty in short-term energy outlooks

Published by , Editorial Assistant
World Pipelines,

The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) short-term energy outlook (STEO) analyses current market conditions every month and forecasts energy supply, consumption, prices, and other trends over the short-term.

EIA: uncertainty in short-term energy outlooks

As the US and global economies have recovered from the pandemic and energy prices have risen from the lows of 2020 and early 2021, the EIA’s forecasts have been subject to greater-than-usual uncertainty — something the they emphasise in the first paragraph of every STEO. This uncertainty has increased significantly following Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine.

The EIA believe it is more important to understand all the factors generating the uncertainty around their March STEO forecasts than it is to understand the forecasts themselves. Recent events in the oil market have occurred amid a backdrop of already low inventory levels, which have amplified oil price volatility and contributed to high oil prices. Some of the most consequential factors the EIA are watching include the following possibilities:

  • Nations could choose to ban imports of Russian energy.
  • Additional sanctions against Russia could be announced.
  • Corporations could take additional independent actions that would affect Russia’s oil output.
  • Producers of crude oil outside Russia could respond to higher prices by increasing production.

In recent months, the EIA have consistently forecast that global production of energy commodities such as crude oil will increase this year to balance demand that has increased more rapidly since mid-2020. The EIA still forecast this. The EIA expect global oil production in 2022 will increase to the point of beginning to restore depleted global inventories, which could contribute to some declines in crude oil prices. However, the Russian action in Ukraine and the global response to it make these forecasts highly uncertain.

The EIA will continue to monitor market dynamics in the energy sector and publish updated information to support a fuller understanding of the evolving situation.



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