In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts that US crude oil production will remain near its current level through the end of 2021.
US pipeline exports of natural gas have been displacing other sources of Mexico’s natural gas, including LNG imports.
US crude oil exports reached a record high in February 2020 and have since fallen in each month, based on data through June, according to the US EIA.
Net exports began declining in spring 2020 as a result of a global economic slowdown amid the spread of COVID-19.
Changes in domestic production and declines in global demand for energy since mid-March have shifted energy trade balances back in the direction of net imports, according to the EIA.
The US EIA analyses the relationship between brent crude oil prices and the index of the value of the US dollar in recent months.
Production of crude oil decreased in the United States in May 2020 by 1.99 million bpd, the largest monthly decrease since at least January 1980.
In the first half of 2020, Canada’s production declined 20% from its 2019 average of 5.5 million bpd.
Canada is the largest source of US energy imports and the second-largest destination for US energy exports behind only Mexico, according to the EIA.
The EIA forecasts that the decrease will be driven by declines in natural gas used in the industrial, commercial, and residential sectors.