EIA forecasts in the June release of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that global Brent crude oil prices will stabilise in mid-2021 and average about US$68/bbl in 3Q21 before decreasing to an average of YS$60/bbl in 2022. Brent crude oil prices averaged US$68/bbl in May, a 25% increase from January’s average.
“In the coming months, we expect global oil production to catch up with the increases we’ve seen in demand in 2021,” said EIA Acting Administrator Stephen Nalley. “US and global oil producers are increasing their production, which should help moderate oil prices that have increased significantly as global economic concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic have begun to ease.”
We expect global petroleum and liquid fuels consumption to grow by 6% in 2021, totalling 97.7 million bpd and increase a further 4% in 2022, reaching 101.3 million bpd. In response to this increase in global demand, we forecast US crude oil production will average 11.8 million bpd in 2022, up 4% from 2020. We expect OPEC production to reach 28.7 million b/pd in 2022, an increase of 12% over 2020.
Also in the STEO:
- We expect US regular retail gasoline prices to average US$2.92/gal. for the summer driving season, which runs April through September. We expect monthly average gasoline prices this summer to peak in June at US$3.03/gal.
- We forecast an increase of 9 gigawatts of US small-scale solar electricity capacity in 2021 and 2022.
- We revised our forecast of US coal production in 2021 to 600 million short t, a 3% increase from our May forecast, because we raised our forecast of coal exports and inventory levels.
The entire Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website.
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The June issue of World Pipelines includes a regional report on Russia’s most prominent oil and gas pipeline projects, as well as technical articles on design standardisation (Burns & McDonnell), corrosion (Tesi S.p.A.), hydrogen blending in pipelines (ILF) and much more. Don’t miss the dedicated Coatings Q&A on p. 23, with Winn & Coales International Ltd.
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