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Russia cuts planned oil exports via Transneft

Published by , Editorial Assistant
World Pipelines,

Russia plans to export 0.5% less oil per day via the Transneft pipeline system in 3Q23 than in the previous three months, according to industry sources and Reuters calculations, due to voluntary crude output cuts and higher refinery runs.

The oil export and transit plan for Russia's Transneft system has been set at 4.24 million bpd for the July to September period, down from 4.26 million bpd in the original plan for 2Q23. The plan is a key indicator of Russian oil exports as a whole, as Russia moves the lion's share of its shipments via the Transneft system. Some market players expect still deeper export cuts in the coming months.

"Turnarounds (maintenance shutdowns at Russia's oil plants) will be at the lowest pace in recent months, utilisation rates will rise, while oil production will be capped by the OPEC+ deal and voluntary cuts, resulting in lower oil exports," an industry source said.

Russia has extended its 500 000 bpd voluntary oil production cut from the level agreed upon at the 4 June OPEC+ ministerial meeting until the end of December 2024. Oil loadings from Russia's ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk in 3Q23 will inch down by 1.1% to 2.26 million bpd from 2.29 million bpd planned for the previous three months.

Russia plans to continue oil transit via Ukraine by the southern spur of the Druzhba pipeline. Moscow plans to deliver some 0.32 million bpd to the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia in 3Q23, down from 0.33 million bpd in 2Q23. It has planned no pipeline supplies via Druzhba to Poland or Germany, while Kazakhstan's transit quota for supplies to Germany was set unchanged from 2Q23 at around 24 000 bpd.

EU governments agreed on Wednesday 21 June to an 11th package of sanctions against Russia, prohibiting oil supplies via Druzhba to Poland and Germany. Supplies via the southern spur of the pipeline remain exempt from the embargo.

Transneft's Russian oil supplies to Asian markets, including shipments to China via the Skovorodino-Mohe and Atasu-Alashankou pipelines and from the Pacific port of Kozmino, are set to rise by 2.2% q/q on a daily basis to 1.63 million bpd.


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