Europe to source two-thirds of its LNG imports from US in 2026 as dependence deepens

IEEFA’s updated European LNG Tracker and EU Gas Flows Tracker show that Europe’s imports of US LNG more than tripled between 2021 and 2025, as countries reduced their reliance on Russian pipeline gas.

Given the ongoing disruptions to Qatari LNG exports, IEEFA forecasts that the US will overtake Norway to become Europe’s and the EU’s largest gas supplier in 2026 and could account for 80% of EU LNG imports by 2028. On average, US LNG is the most expensive for European buyers.

“Europe’s shift from pipeline gas to LNG was meant to provide security of supply and diversification. Yet disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East and an overreliance on US LNG show that Europe’s plan has failed on both counts,” said Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst, Europe, at IEEFA.

“LNG has become the Achilles’ heel of Europe's energy security strategy, leaving the continent exposed to high gas prices and to new forms of supply disruption.”

EU policies to reduce gas demand

The ongoing energy crisis has spurred European efforts to reduce reliance on imported gas, including through the EU’s new AccelerateEU strategy.

IEEFA therefore forecasts that Europe’s gas consumption could continue to decline this year and fall by 14% between 2025 and 2030, meaning LNG demand could decrease by about 23% over the same period.

However, European countries still plan to build more LNG terminals, which could be underutilised. IEEFA forecasts that Europe’s 2030 LNG import capacity could exceed its total gas demand and be three times its LNG demand.

“Europe may have no control over LNG supply disruptions, but it can boost energy efficiency and accelerate renewables and heat pump installations to reduce its import dependency,” said Jaller-Makarewicz.

Record imports of Russian LNG

Russia remains the EU’s second-largest LNG supplier, despite the bloc aiming to phase out imports of Russian gas. EU imports of Russian LNG increased by 16% year on year in the first quarter of 2026.

Europe’s imports of Russian LNG reached a quarterly record in the first three months of 2026, driven by deliveries to France, Spain and Belgium.

EU countries spent €5.9 billion on Russian pipeline gas and €6.7 billion on Russian LNG in 2025.

“The war in the Middle East has left Europe more reliant on its two largest LNG suppliers, the US and Russia. The 2026 energy crisis shows that as long as European countries choose to rely on gas, they must accept the geopolitical risks that come with it,” said Jaller-Makarewicz.

Read the article online at: https://www.worldpipelines.com/special-reports/13052026/europe-to-source-two-thirds-of-its-lng-imports-from-us-in-2026-as-dependence-deepens/