“US oil supply has disappointed this year, forcing us to downgrade our growth expectations significantly. We now forecast US supply growth of 560 million bbl/d E/E in 2023,” said Bill Farren-Price, Report Author and a Director at EIR.
“We forecast US gas demand growth of 2 billion ft3/d in 2023, down 2 billion ft3/d vs 2022. Demand gains into 2023 will be limited after a record 32.9 billion ft3/d of gas consumption for power in 2022,” Farren-Price said.
Key takeaways the report:
- EIR expects near-term recession concerns and oil price weakness to not obscure a tight supply outlook for 2023, when they forecast Brent pinned above US$100/bbl on the back of OPEC supply management and EU sanctions on Russian exports.
- EIR forecasts NYMEX gas prices of US$5.10/million Btu this winter, falling to US$3.50/million Btu in summer 2023.
- A full removal of COVID-19 restrictions in China is not expected. Measures may be relaxed, but the threat of fresh shutdowns will undermine Chinese business confidence and oil demand.
- Haynesville gas production is expected to grow 1.5 billion ft3/d E/E in 2022 and 0.2 billion ft3/d E/E in 2023. The slowdown next year reflects limited takeaway capacity with the Gulf Run pipeline limited to 0.5 billion ft3/d until Golden Pass starts up in 2Q24.
