Oil to rise, gas to drop

“US oil supply has disappointed this year, forcing us to downgrade our growth expectations significantly. We now forecast US supply growth of 560 million bbl/d E/E in 2023,” said Bill Farren-Price, Report Author and a Director at EIR.

“We forecast US gas demand growth of 2 billion ft³/d in 2023, down 2 billion ft³/d vs 2022. Demand gains into 2023 will be limited after a record 32.9 billion ft³/d of gas consumption for power in 2022,” Farren-Price said.

Key takeaways the report:

• EIR expects near-term recession concerns and oil price weakness to not obscure a tight supply outlook for 2023, when they forecast Brent pinned above US$100/bbl on the back of OPEC supply management and EU sanctions on Russian exports.
• EIR forecasts NYMEX gas prices of US$5.10/million Btu this winter, falling to US$3.50/million Btu in summer 2023.
• A full removal of COVID-19 restrictions in China is not expected. Measures may be relaxed, but the threat of fresh shutdowns will undermine Chinese business confidence and oil demand.
• Haynesville gas production is expected to grow 1.5 billion ft³/d E/E in 2022 and 0.2 billion ft³/d E/E in 2023. The slowdown next year reflects limited takeaway capacity with the Gulf Run pipeline limited to 0.5 billion ft³/d until Golden Pass starts up in 2Q24.

Read the article online at: https://www.worldpipelines.com/special-reports/08122022/oil-to-rise-gas-to-drop/