Global natural gas balances to remain tight until 2026

“We modelled four LNG demand scenarios through 2030, with three out of the four producing oversupply in 2026 - 2028. Under those three scenarios, global demand for LNG will exceed supply until 2026, by which time European policy will cut the continental pull for volumes to make up for lost Russian gas and demand growth will switch to Asia. Until then, European demand should underpin Dutch TTF at a premium to JKM, as it did for most of 2022,” said Jonathan Snyder, a Vice President at EIR and report author.

Key takeaways from the report:

• Global LNG supply will increase 37% from 2022 to the equivalent of 71 billion ft³/d by 2030, assuming all sanctioned projects come online, according to Enverus projections. The largest components of LNG growth are from Qatar and North America, whose planned projects together account for 13 billion ft³/d of growth, the bulk of which will come into service from 2025 - 2027.
• EIR modelled four LNG demand scenarios through 2030, with three out of the four producing oversupply in 2026 - 2028. Under those three scenarios, global demand for LNG will exceed supply until 2026, by which time European policy will cut the continental pull for volumes to make up for lost Russian gas and demand growth will switch to Asia. Until then, European demand should underpin Dutch TTF at a premium to JKM, as it has for most of this year.
• In the 3% growth per annum scenario, global LNG demand reaches over 68 billion ft³/d by 2030, 16 billion ft³/d higher than 2022 levels. In the 5% growth per annum and 8% growth per annum scenarios, global LNG demand reaches 76 billion ft³/d and 92 billion ft³/d respectively. Yet-to-be-sanctioned projects require the 8% demand growth scenario if full utilisation of pre-FID LNG projects is to be realised.

Read the article online at: https://www.worldpipelines.com/special-reports/05012023/global-natural-gas-balances-to-remain-tight-until-2026/