Global oil supplies rose by 600 000 bpd in June, to 96 million bpd, after outages curbed OPEC and non-OPEC supplies in May, while production was 750 000 bpd below as higher OPEC output only partially offset non-OPEC declines, the newly released IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for July informs subscribers. Non-OPEC supplies are set to decline by 900 000 bpd in 2016, to 56.5 million bpd, before rising 200 000 bpd in 2017.
Robust European demand supported second quarter 2016 global demand growth at around 1.4 million bpd year-on-year, momentum that will be roughly matched through the year as a whole. A modest deceleration is foreseen in 2017, as growth eases to 1.3 million bpd taking average deliveries up to 97.4 million bpd.
Crude oil prices eased from an early June peak above US$52/bbl, but traded within a US$45 - 50/bbl range. Growing uncertainty over the global economy and the related dollar strength weighed, but the downside was limited by further declines in US production and inventories.
OPEC crude output rose by 400 000 bpd in June to an eight-year high of 33.21 million bpd, including newly re-joined Gabon. Saudi Arabia ramped up to a near-record rate of 10.45 million bpd and Nigerian flows partially recovered. Middle East producers sustained record pumping rates, consolidating market share and pushing OPEC’s total output 510 000 bpd above one year ago.
OECD commercial inventories built by 13.5 million bbls in May to end the month at a record 3074 million bbls. Preliminary information for June suggest that OECD stocks added a further 900 000 bbls while floating storage has continued to build, reaching its highest level since 2009.
May global refinery throughput plunged by almost 1 million bpd from April, to 1.5 million bpd year-on-year, as heavy outages took their toll in many regions. This lowered the second quarter estimate for global refinery intake to 78.54 million bpd – the first year-on-year drop in three years. The forecast for third quarter throughput is more steady at 80.95 million bpd.
Adapted from press release by Rosalie Starling
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