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New report: North American gas market outlook

Published by
World Pipelines,

The ‘North American Gas Market: Outlook to 2030’ report has been added to's offering. Demand is expected to grow at a moderate rate of ~2%/y through 2030, eventually reaching 119 billion ft3/d due to increasing exports, shifts in power sources and rising chemicals production.

Combining deep insights with data from several proprietary forecasting models, this outlook explores the key drivers impacting North American gas markets.

New pipelines will allow Appalachian gas to supply new markets, fundamentally altering North American gas flows. Associated gas from the Permian will add low cost gas to the supply mix but requires additional pipeline investment. International factors like LNG and exports to Mexico will increasingly affect the US market. Weak global LNG prices and high cash costs will keep utilisation at US LNG plants low for the next few years. Meanwhile, coal retirements and falling renewable costs are changing the role of gas in the power mix.

Key findings include:

  • Exports account for ~67% of US and Canadian demand growth by 2030 From 2016 - 2030, LNG and exports to Mexico grow by over 19 billion ft3/d and account for ~67% of US and Canadian gas demand growth.
  • US LNG liquefaction facilities utilisation will average less than 60% from 2018 - 2023.
  • Weak global LNG market will result in ~4.5 billion ft3/d excess LNG export capacity in 2021.
  • From 2025 - 2030, an additional ~6 billion ft3/d LNG export capacity comes online. Brownfield conversions at Lake Charles and Golden Pass come online first followed by more speculative projects.
  • Shale will continue to dominate production. ~40% of all gas produced in North America will come from the Appalachian basin by 2030.
  • Low cost associated gas will push the gas cost curve to the right. ~50% of total gas supply growth in North America by 2030 is associated, with the Permian and SCOOP/STACK plays especially productive.

Key topics covered include:

Historical recap (2005 - 2016)
  • A review of the how the rise of shale gas has changed North American supply, demand, pipeline flows and prices.

Key charts and tables include:

  • North American gas demand by sector and Henry Hub price.
  • US dry gas production by type.
  • Comparison of historical distillate, residual fuel oil, natural gas, and coal prices.
  • Major movements of piped gas across North America.
  • Current key supply and demand drivers for North American gas prices.

The report also analyses demand outlook to 2030; supply outlook to 2030; and price outlook to 2030.

See the report here.

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Canada pipeline news US pipeline news