EIA predicts gas infrastructure problems this summer in southern California

The Aliso Canyon Technical Assessment Group, which includes the California Public Utility Commission, the California Energy Commission, the California Independent System Operator, and the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, concluded that base case total system deliverability capacity – a combination of the natural gas pipeline system and the deliverability capacity of non-Aliso storage working gas – is slightly lower than 3.6 billion ft³/d this summer, or 0.2 billion ft³/d lower than last summer when pipeline outages curtailed deliverability.

If daily natural gas demand exceeds 3.6 billion ft³/d – which is relatively common in winter months but has occurred only once in the past five summers—some natural gas deliveries to electric generators may need to be curtailed.

Since October 2017, SoCalGas has experienced a series of planned and unplanned natural gas pipeline outages that have reduced the ability to bring natural gas into southern California. According to the 7 May 2018 SoCalGas maintenance schedule, pipeline repairs are not expected to be completed until the end of summer, with key pipelines – Lines 4000, 235-2, and 2000 – showing no scheduled completion date. Pipeline capacity for summer 2018 is about 0.53 billion ft³/d lower than at this time last summer, but storage deliverability is about 0.4 billion ft³/d higher.

Natural gas inventories in southern California are typically refilled over the summer months. However, electricity demand is higher in the summer months, and natural gas is a key fuel source for electric power generation in southern California. According to SoCalGas, the current outages leave the company with insufficient capacity to both serve customer demand and to refill storage inventories.

The timing and extent of refilling natural gas at SoCalGas’ storage fields have changed since a leak at the Aliso Canyon storage complex was discovered in October 2015. Aliso Canyon, previously the second-largest natural gas storage facility in the US, had its capacity reduced from 86 billion ft³ to about 25 billion ft³ as a result of the leak. The total capacity of the four storage facilities in the SoCalGas service territory declined from 136 billion ft³ to 74 billion ft³.

The Assessment Group’s report issued a series of recommendations to help Southern California address reliability challenges, including:

• Importing LNG through the Otay Mesa receipt point at the San Diego-Mexico border.
• Co-ordinating with natural gas customers to ensure they are prepared to respond to high and low operational flow orders to maintain system balance.
• Expediting any pending electricity transmission upgrades.
• Taking advantage of demand response pilot projects.
• Exploring an increase in the maximum target inventory – or storage capacity – at Aliso Canyon.

Read the article online at: https://www.worldpipelines.com/business-news/11062018/eia-predicts-gas-infrastructure-problems-this-summer-in-southern-california/