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CEDIGAZ release ‘Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook 2018’

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World Pipelines,

CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas, has just released its ‘Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook 2018’.

In CEDIGAZ Reference Scenario, which incorporates National Energy Plans and INDC commitments, natural gas demand will grow by 1.4%/yr between 2016 and 2040 and will play a growing role in the energy mix at the expense of the other fossil fuels. The gradual shift from coal and oil to natural gas and renewables helps reduce the carbon intensity of the energy system as electrification and decarbonisation accelerate over the projection period. The expansion of natural gas markets is supported by both abundant and competitive conventional and unconventional resources, as well as a very rapid growth of spot and flexible LNG trade.

  • Natural gas demand grows by 1.4%/yr over 2016 - 2040, which is lower than the previous outlook. A stronger push for renewables and energy efficiency drives gas demand growth down to 1.2%/yr over 2025 - 2040, compared to 1.8%/yr over 2016 - 2025.
  • On the supply side, the largest production gains are expected in the Middle East (411 billion m3), North America (352 billion m3) and Asia-Oceania (305 billion m3).
  • Interregional (long distance) trade is forecast to grow by 3.1%/yr between 2016 and 2040. LNG expands more rapidly than pipeline gas. Interregional LNG trade will grow by more than 4%/yr.
  • Higher than previously expected Asian LNG demand, propelled by China, and delays in the second wave of LNG liquefaction projects bring a risk of tighter markets as early as 2022.

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