Wood Mackenzie: Five key takeaways from COP30

COP30 in Brazil showcased global cooperation with 194 countries signing agreements, yet material progress remained elusive. While collaboration was strong, advances from last year were conspicuous by their absence. The COP’s continuing inability to commit to reducing fossil fuels summed it all up and ensures progress on emissions reduction will proceed at a glacial pace. Here are the Wood Mackenzie team’s five key takeaways from COP30:

Finance gap widens despite ambitious targets

Climate finance commitments remain stuck at US$100 billion annually, far below the US$300 billion target set at COP29. COP30's 'Baku to Belem roadmap' calls for scaling up to US$1.3 trillion yearly through private capital and innovative financing. A Wood Mackenzie-contributed report reveals this requires a fourfold increase in equity by 2035.

Trade policy needs to become central to decarbonisation efforts

In the past, international trade has been largely excluded from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change meetings. But a quarter of global emissions now come from internationally traded products and materials, so it’s not surprising that the topic was debated intensely this year. With 25% of global emissions from internationally traded products, trade policy took centre stage.

Current nationally determined contributions ignore imported emissions in supply chains. By focusing on supply chain emissions accounting, where efforts are often stymied by international competition, the world can accelerate the transition.

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is an effort to regulate embodied carbon by levelling the playing field through a price on imported emissions in specific sectors. However, some countries – including China, India and Japan – have pushed back on the EU’s CBAM initiative, calling it “unilateral and arbitrary.”

The final COP30 agreement avoided concrete actions against unilateral trade barriers. This suggests that CBAM remains a point of international friction and contention, although its implementation is proceeding within the EU.

Methane momentum stalls without US leadership

Brazil, China and the UK attempted to fill the US void, hosting a methane summit with 11 countries committing to drastic fossil fuel sector reductions. However, UNEP's report shows very few of the 159 Global Methane Pledge signatories have progressed toward the 30% reduction target by 2030. That meant that COP30 lacked a standout achievement on methane emissions. UNEP’s report highlighted that emissions are still rising. Yet significant global reduction potential lies within major economies, with possible mitigation solutions relatively low cost.

NDC assessment – a reality check on global progress

A decade after Paris, global emissions haven't peaked. Wood Mackenzie's Base Case projects a 2.6°C warming pathway, with no major economy on track for 2030 targets. Announced goals for 2035 lack the ambition required to keep warming below 2 °C. China is decarbonising rapidly but has yet to begin any decline in absolute emissions. Based on the NDCs submitted, global emissions in 2035 are projected to be around 12% below 2019 levels, and insufficient to reach well below 2 °C trajectory.

In comparison, Wood Mackenzie’s base case outlook, in the Energy Transition Outlook, shows only an approximately 2% decline in emissions by 2035 relative to 2019 levels. Meanwhile, our country pledges scenario points to a nearly 15% decline over this period. The analysis suggests submitted NDCs would, in fact, result in a warming pathway of above 2 °C.

Read the full analysis here, for Wood Mackenzie's complete assessment of COP30's outcomes and implications for the energy transition.

Read the article online at: https://www.worldpipelines.com/business-news/28112025/wood-mackenzie-five-key-takeaways-from-cop30/