Short-term Canadian natural gas deliverability 2014 - 2016

The Natural Energy Board today released its short-term Canadian natural gas deliverability, 2014 - 2016 Energy Market Assessment (EMA). This EMA examines the factors that affect natural gas supply in Canada in the short-term, and presents an outlook for Canadian natural gas deliverability from the beginning of 2014 to the end of 2016.

Over the period assessed in the EMA, deliverability is expected to rise gradually, as declines in the output of dry natural gas are offset by rising production of more liquids-rich natural gas, from 397 106 m³/d in 2013 to 414 106 m³/d (in 2016. In a Mid-Range Price Case, prices would increase from US$ 3.73 million MMBtu (Henry Hub prices in US dollars) in 2013 to US$ 4.35 MMBtu in 2016.

"This EMA shows again that Canadian natural gas markets are working well", said the Board’s Chair and Chief Executive Officer Gaétan Caron. "Our work demonstrates that deliverability will readily meet Canadian demand, contributing to Canada’s successful pursuit of a sustainable energy future."

The 2013 - 2014 winter was colder than average in parts of Canada and the US and significantly increased natural gas demand for space heating and power generation. To help meet the increased demand, natural gas was withdrawn from storage at a faster rate than in previous years. With more natural gas supply needed to refill storage before next winter, natural gas prices may remain higher than recent levels to displace some demands and encourage some additional production.

A Higher Price Case would see natural gas prices reach US$ 6 MMBtu by 2016, resulting in more natural gas drilling and Canadian deliverability increasing to 446 106 m³/d in 2016. In a Lower Price Case, growth in markets for Canadian natural gas would be slowed by mild weather conditions with prices remaining at or below US$ 4 MMBtu and deliverability declining to 385 106 m³/d in 2016.

Adapted from press release by Hannah Priestley-Eaton

Read the article online at: https://www.worldpipelines.com/business-news/21052014/short_term_canadian_natural_gas_deliverability_2014_2016/