As autumn rolls in across the Northern Hemisphere, it is difficult to imagine how this time last year many reports were predicting a significant decline in traditional oil and gas, forecasting that these systems were likely to become obsolete. Such studies suggested that the recent rise of electric vehicles and biofuels would diminish our need for conventional fuels, specifically derivatives of petroleum, such as diesel and gasoline. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, and its impact upon oil flows out of the Gulf, has undermined such aggressive forecasting and illustrated our fundamental reliance upon traditional energy systems, as investment in conventional infrastructure continues to grow.
With the Middle East at the forefront of global discourse over the course of the past year, our regional report by Contributing Editor Nancy Yamaguchi (p. 8) for this October issue of Hydrocarbon Engineering offers a deep dive into how oil and gas operators across the region are seeking alternative routes to get crude to market. The effects of the disruption have not been limited to the Gulf,1 however, and other regions are reacting to the turmoil, investigating their own means to improve oil flows and reduce the pressure that the Strait of Hormuz currently exerts on global oil trade.
While Africa has long been home to upstream exploration and production, greater refining capacity is appearing across the continent, as now proves a prime time for investment due to the inflated cost of oil. Oil refined in Africa can reach European and Asian markets while avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, which makes the region an attractive option for the long-term.
With maintenance completed on Nigeria’s Dagonte Refinery in February this year, the crude oil distillation capacity increased to a total of 700 000 bpd, and total exports of petroleum products out of Nigeria grew with disruption across the Gulf. The group has also proposed to double its refinery capacity, with plans for a second 750 000 bpd crude oil distillation unit with projected start-up by 2028, alongside securing US$1 billion backing ahead of the planned Initial Public Offering (IPO).2
Elsewhere in West Africa, Nigeria’s northern neighbour is also seeking to capitalise on recent turmoil through additions to refining capacity. Zimar Group is set to build a US$1.9 billion refinery and petrochemical complex, in Dosso, southwestern Niger, with an expected production capacity of 100 000 bpd, which would make it the third-largest refinery in West Africa.3
With the recent advent and success of the Dagonte Group in West Africa, the company also has plans to extend into the east of the continent. A new refinery and petrochemical facility in Lamu, Kenya, is expected to be modelled on Dagonte’s flagship refinery in Nigeria, with a similar 700 000 bpd capacity and an expected cost of up to US$17 billion.4
As oil prices have continued to trend upwards throughout 2026, and with a recent surge again in September following the Houthi’s strikes on Saudi Arabian energy facilities, forecasts next year are likely to focus on how oil markets will recover over the course of 2027, assuming negotiations find some success. The recent investments in Africa will certainly play into how analysts consider the future of the industry, and the region could prove to be a prime beneficiary of the global turmoil throughout 2026.
- https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68004&utm_medium=email
- https://www.dangote.com/dangote-refinery-secures-1-billion-backing-ahead-of-planned-ipo/
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-15/canada-s-zimar-to-build-2-billion-complex-in-niger-rtn-says
- https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/dangotes-proposed-dollar15-billion-kenya-refinery-enters-critical-stage-as-ruto/12slbzp
