European gas prices fell to near seven-week lows on the afternoon of Friday 17th April 2026, on news the Strait of Hormuz would be fully open to commercial shipping, but traders and analysts remained cautious.
The bellwether front-month gas contract on the Dutch TTF hub dropped to an intraday low of EUR 38.27/MWh on Ice Endex, down nearly 10% from the previous settlement and its lowest since 2 March.
This comes after US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social, “The Strait of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business and full passage.”
Speaking to Montel News, Tom Marzec Manser, Wood Mackenzie’s Europe Gas and LNG director said "I think once we either see movement of the trapped laden LNG cargoes and/or we hear an update from QatarEnergy regarding Ras Laffan restarting, we could see some more downward direction in TTF.”
Also speaking to Montel News, Fabio Reale, Head of LNG Analytics at shipbrokers Clarksons said there were already indications that QatarEnergy had restarted the plants at the end of last week, adding however that “it could take several weeks before exports resumed, beyond the current ceasefire deadline.”
Alex Froley, LNG Market Analyst at ICIS, said the news “sounds positive”, noting the market had already reacted by dropping below EUR 40/MWh. “There are around 14 cargoes loaded and ready to go inside the strait. However, we don’t see them moving yet,” he added.
Yahdian Falah, Senior Portfolio Manager at trading firm Trianel, said this was “the most waited-for announcement”.
“Although it is temporary, it reduces further the escalation risk,” he said. “What we need to see now is the very first LNG vessel crossing.”
Analysts poll shows EUR 40/MWh gas price expectation
Earlier in the day, a new poll conducted by Montel News showed that Europe’s benchmark gas price could average EUR 45/MWh this year if the Strait of Hormuz reopens next month and Qatar’s LNG output resumes over the summer.
The consensus among gas market analysts pointed to a late-May reopening, implying roughly a three-month halt to Qatari LNG since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on 28 February and closed the shipping route that handles about 20% of global LNG flows.
Under such a scenario, the front-month contract on Europe’s TTF hub would average just above EUR 40/MWh through year-end, consultancy Wood Mackenzie data showed.
The base case assumed a full reopening in the second half of next month and a gradual recovery of Qatar’s production capacity, excluding damaged facilities, from then until the end of August, said Nacho Garcia-Lajara, senior gas and LNG analyst at Wood Mackenzie, speaking to Montel News.
Energy Aspects and ABN Amro pointed to averages of EUR 42/MWh and EUR 45/MWh, respectively, while SEB’s forecast was higher at EUR 55/MWh, on the assumption of a full reopening by late May and no further major damage to gas infrastructure.