EIA: US leads crude oil production for sixth year running

Crude oil production in the US, including condensate, averaged 12.9 million bpd in 2023, breaking the previous US and global record of 12.3 million bpd, set in 2019. Average monthly US crude oil production established a monthly record high in December 2023 at more than 13.3 million bpd.

The crude oil production record in the US in 2023 is unlikely to be broken in any other country in the near term because no other country has reached production capacity of 13.0 million bpd. Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Saudi Aramco recently scrapped plans to increase production capacity to 13.0 million bpd by 2027.

Together, the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia accounted for 40% (32.8 million bpd) of global oil production in 2023. These three countries have produced more oil than any others since 1971 (counting production in the Russian Federation of the Soviet Union prior to 1991), although the top spot has shifted among them over the past five decades. By comparison, the next three largest producing countries – Canada, Iraq, and China –combined produced 13.1 million bpd in 2023, only slightly more than what was produced in the US alone.

After peaking at 9.6 million bpd in 1970, annual US crude oil production flattened and then generally declined for decades to a low of 5.0 million bpd in 2008. Crude oil production in the US began increasing again in 2009, as producers increasingly applied hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques, and has increased steadily since. The only exception to US production growth since 2009 was in 2020 and 2021, when demand and prices decreased because of the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. In recent years, crude oil production in the Permian Basin (in western Texas and eastern New Mexico) drove the increases in total crude oil and natural gas production in the US.

Russia was the country with the most crude oil production in 2017, but production growth in Russia has since lagged behind the US. Average annual production in Russia peaked in 2019 at 10.8 million bpd, when it trailed the US by 1.4 million bpd. More recently, Russia was among the OPEC+ countries that announced production cuts in November 2022, and in February 2023, it separately announced additional voluntary cuts of 500 000 bpd. Although voluntary cuts have reduced recent production in Russia, we believe sanctions and voluntary actions by companies in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine have been the primary cause of the cuts. Actual cuts to production appear to be smaller than anticipated, however, and we estimate that production in Russia declined by only 200 000 bpd in 2023.

Average annual production in Saudi Arabia peaked in 2022 at 10.6 million bpd, which was 1.3 million bpd less than in the US that year. In 2023, crude oil production in Saudi Arabia declined by about 900 000 bpd because of OPEC+ cuts and further voluntary cuts Saudi Arabia made to offset weaker demand growth. Production in Saudi Arabia could not exceed the 2023 production volume in the US because state-owned Saudi Aramco’s stated production capacity is 12.0 million bpd, with about 300 000 bpd of additional capacity from its share of the Neutral Zone area shared with Kuwait.

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Read the article online at: https://www.worldpipelines.com/special-reports/13032024/eia-us-leads-crude-oil-production-for-sixth-year-running/